Martin wrote:Sabermetrics as applied to fastpitch - an area woefully in need of analysis. I've asked just about every knowledgable person I've come across if they have ever seen a statistical breakdown that approaches the sort of analysis applied to baseball. No one has ever heard of such an analysis at any level of play. If there is one, it is probably the closely-guarded secret of a major D1 program or the Olympic team.
So I did one myself in 2004 for our 16U team.
Bottom Line - most of the baseball "truisms" held true for our team and our opponents. For example, it was very interesting to me to see the average number of runs scored in innings when we had R1 and no outs and R2 and one out. That helps determine the value of the sac bunt. Likewise, our hitting production at each count matched what the baseball analysts would predict.
But that's another subject. On your topic, you appear to be mixing two different concepts: the value of taking a pitch (to allow a runner to steal or perhaps on a 3-0 count) versus offensive productivity at different counts. Unless you are arguing there is some value in taking a pitch to work the count more in your favor? If so, I think you're playing with fire. Taking a 1-1 pitch in the hopes of getting a ball and thus arriving at a more productive 2-1 count is not a wise strategy, IMHO.
Thanks, Martin, for the thoughtful reply. Kudos to you for investing the time to run the numbers and it's very interesting that your small sample seemed to mirror MLB results. I think we're on the same page. Coincidentally, I had initially included a comment about the sac bunt but deleted it as I found I wandered too much. That's something worthy of a separate thread.
My gut has always told me that giving the take sign is questionable at best, especially with experienced hitters and solid pitchers. The stats seem to validate that. It's difficult to get something hittable from a good pitcher and taking away 1 of 5 or 6 opportunities seems to me to really put her in a weak position.
