Take sign or no take sign?

[dallasfungo]

Ok, softball strategy gurus, weigh in on this. What is the expected value in giving a hitter the take sign?

Best case - the hitter doesn't swing at a ball, which she might not do anyway.

Worst case - your hitter leaves the bat on her shoulder when the pitcher serves up a mistake over the middle of the plate and your hitter gets behind in the count.

[bradrhod]

Best Case - Younger age players 10/12, it simplifies the process. You avoid that pop-up when the hitter swings at a pitch that is not the best.

Worst Case - Older girls. For me you send two bad messages to your hitter 1) I do not trust your ability to judge the ball. 2) You are a hitter, but in this case, you are not a hitter.

For older players I would rather work with them on how become more selective when the count is in thier favor. Of course, everything varies based on the game situation, the hitter, the pitcher etc. I hear coaches often state adamently that they 'always' use the take, or they 'never' use the take.

[Skarp]

Are we talking specifically about first pitch takes here, or takes more generally?

[dallasfungo]

Generally, but if you think a specific situation is worthy of discussion, let us hear it. Thanks!

[12UDad]

OK I'll bite.

Runner on 1st with speed no outs. Take the first pitch/runner steals second/ if pitch is a ball take again steal 3rd, if pitch is strike sac bunt runner to third. Of course this all depends on the type of hitter you have up to bat. There are many options depending on the pitcher, catcher, hitter, runner and SS.

[Sam]

If its not a qualifier....generally....let them swing. I do like to give a kid a take sign when they arent' hitting and aren't doing anything to try to get better....afterward, I tell them that I would have let them swing away if they were working hard on getting better.

[dallasfungo]

OK I'll bite.

Runner on 1st with speed no outs. Take the first pitch/runner steals second/ if pitch is a ball take again steal 3rd, if pitch is strike sac bunt runner to third. Of course this all depends on the type of hitter you have up to bat. There are many options depending on the pitcher, catcher, hitter, runner and SS.

Thanks for stepping up. I'm not disagreeing but looking at possible outcomes. Certainly the skills on the field will change the decision process. For this discussion, let's assume a high skill level on both offense and defense. To Brad's point, I'm curious in the offensive philosophy...is it better to take the bat out of the girl's hands (and retain control over the decision) or give the batter responsibility to execute?

In 12UD's example: Runner on 1B, we have a steal on and we have the batter take. Best case, the count is 1-0 with a runner now on 2B. Worst case, we have a called strike high & outside and a clear throwdown for the catcher to 2B. The count is 0-1 and we might have lost the lead-off runner.

The alternative is swinging away or laying down a bunt/push or slap. Assuming the batter swings and misses a strike, the batter has distracted the catcher, impeding the throwdown, same result as a take only improving the chance on the steal. Assuming the ball is put in play, the infield is probably moving on the steal and will likely have a little more difficulty fielding the batted ball. Best case, a base hit, runners on 1B & 2B or at the corners. Worst case is a short fly ball or caught line drive that doubles off the runner on 1B. Or, if fielded cleanly, a runner on 2B and out at 1B; maybe a wash. Foul ball, we start over, count is 0-1.

Tough to measure probabilities, for sure, because the game is fantastically random. To Brad's point, I like sending the message that the batter is in control of her at-bat.

If MLB stats are relevant to fastpitch, OPS changes with strike count (from the 2006 season):
1-0 - .849
0-1 - .658
1-2 - .542
2-1 - .842
2-2 - .637
3-1 - 1.089

[dallasfungo]

If MLB stats are relevant to fastpitch, OPS changes with strike count (from the 2006 season):
1-0 - .849
0-1 - .658
1-2 - .542
2-1 - .842
2-2 - .637
3-1 - 1.089

Sorry, for those of you who are not stat geeks, OPS is on base percentage + slugging percentage.

[Martin]

Sabermetrics as applied to fastpitch - an area woefully in need of analysis. I've asked just about every knowledgable person I've come across if they have ever seen a statistical breakdown that approaches the sort of analysis applied to baseball. No one has ever heard of such an analysis at any level of play. If there is one, it is probably the closely-guarded secret of a major D1 program or the Olympic team.

So I did one myself in 2004 for our 16U team.

Bottom Line - most of the baseball "truisms" held true for our team and our opponents. For example, it was very interesting to me to see the average number of runs scored in innings when we had R1 and no outs and R2 and one out. That helps determine the value of the sac bunt. Likewise, our hitting production at each count matched what the baseball analysts would predict.

But that's another subject. On your topic, you appear to be mixing two different concepts: the value of taking a pitch (to allow a runner to steal or perhaps on a 3-0 count) versus offensive productivity at different counts. Unless you are arguing there is some value in taking a pitch to work the count more in your favor? If so, I think you're playing with fire. Taking a 1-1 pitch in the hopes of getting a ball and thus arriving at a more productive 2-1 count is not a wise strategy, IMHO.

[12UDad]

I do not see the value in taking pitch in order to achieve a better pitch count. I can see taking in order to get a runner over on a steal with a average hitter. I may hit and run with a slapper or ground ball hitter where I wouldn't with a power hitter who also hits a lot of fly balls. I amy indeed show bunt and pull back in order to block the catcher. If successful on etting runner to second on 1st pitch batter still has 2 swings if I want to let her. ground ball will probably move the runner as will a fly ball to the outfield. Again this is not an everytime thing, it depends on a lot of different things.

I really like Sam's take on a hitter not helping herself. I may have to use that.