Berths- Returning & Invites-2013

[ontheblack]

Why doesn't somebody go back over all the games of invited teams from each division & see how they fared in competition vs those teams that earned berths? Then compare the final win loss records & final standings. Comparative analysis for all you bean counting numbers crunching types

I look at 14s. SoCal As 14. Gino lost all but one player from the previous year. He put a new team together and got an invite. His girls did their thing and justified the invite.

He is now Team Mizuno and the berth he earned reverts back to PGF. If they gave him another invite, I wouldn't be surprised and would offer no objection. The upside is another team likely got in that wouldnt have otherwise.

The question is did a team that deserved to be there not get in?

[MavFan]

Why doesn't somebody go back over all the games of invited teams from each division & see how they fared in competition vs those teams that earned berths? Then compare the final win loss records & final standings. Comparative analysis for all you bean counting numbers crunching types

I look at 14s. SoCal As 14. Gino lost all but one player from the previous year. He put a new team together and got an invite. His girls did their thing and justified the invite.

He is now Team Mizuno and the berth he earned reverts back to PGF. If they gave him another invite, I wouldn't be surprised and would offer no objection. The upside is another team likely got in that wouldnt have otherwise.

The question is did a team that deserved to be there not get in?

How does another team get in that wouldn't have otherwise if Mizuno is invited? There are still X number of teams playing in the national. X number of berths and X number of invites. You are assuming that all invited teams would qualify if they were not invited. If you increase the invites, you lessen the chance of a team getting a berth not increase it because you reduce the number of berths won through qualification. If you have 56 teams sign up for a qualifier with 8 berths, 1 of 7 teams will get a berth. Now when you invite 4 teams from that pool of 56 and reduce the number of berths by 4, to 4, and the teams from 56 to 52, you have decreased the chances of getting a berth from 1 in 7 teams to 1 in 13 teams. Maybe the 4 invites get in if they have to qualify, maybe they don't, but you are definitely not getting a team in that may otherwise not have made it, again unless you assume all invited teams would earn a berth through qualification.

[jmo]

Just an FYI, all National Qualifiers should be up on the website by next week. We had hoped to have it this week but are still finalizing a few last minute issues. We want to release all of them at the same time.

Invites should be going out by next week also.

[exD1dad]

OK OTB lets talk 14's last year...American Pastime Ramos qualified the year before (with a pickup player who hit .600+) & went 2 & out last summer (I heard they lost their stud pitcher?). So again the argument that earned berths from the year before shouldn't happen either cuz star players age out? Throw in the old qualifying teams that don't come (was that just Houston area?)

Sorry IMHO they have to have invites

[ontheblack]

Why doesn't somebody go back over all the games of invited teams from each division & see how they fared in competition vs those teams that earned berths? Then compare the final win loss records & final standings. Comparative analysis for all you bean counting numbers crunching types

I look at 14s. SoCal As 14. Gino lost all but one player from the previous year. He put a new team together and got an invite. His girls did their thing and justified the invite.

He is now Team Mizuno and the berth he earned reverts back to PGF. If they gave him another invite, I wouldn't be surprised and would offer no objection. The upside is another team likely got in that wouldnt have otherwise.

The question is did a team that deserved to be there not get in?

How does another team get in that wouldn't have otherwise if Mizuno is invited? There are still X number of teams playing in the national. X number of berths and X number of invites. You are assuming that all invited teams would qualify if they were not invited. If you increase the invites, you lessen the chance of a team getting a berth not increase it because you reduce the number of berths won through qualification. If you have 56 teams sign up for a qualifier with 8 berths, 1 of 7 teams will get a berth. Now when you invite 4 teams from that pool of 56 and reduce the number of berths by 4, to 4, and the teams from 56 to 52, you have decreased the chances of getting a berth from 1 in 7 teams to 1 in 13 teams. Maybe the 4 invites get in if they have to qualify, maybe they don't, but you are definitely not getting a team in that may otherwise not have made it, again unless you assume all invited teams would earn a berth through qualification.

I see your point. I look at it from the perspective of teams that got invites that would have likely knocked others out of the qualifiers.

Some of those invites went to So Cal based teams because there were fewer out of state teams qualifying. If you increased the amount of SoCal based berths on the basis of team population, maybe you are right and the same teams get in.

I dont think team record at PGF means squat. Some teams played in multiple qualifiers to get in and did well. Others got in first shot out and did poorly at PGF. In 14s I can point to Buster's team with invite who played great at Premier. The flip side was SD Aztecs playing tough in qualifiers, coming up short, getting an invite and doing well. One FC team won an early qualifier but didnt perform all that well at PGF, while one had an invite and did very well. CA were like AP, had the berth from before, but not the same ace UCLA bound pitcher and struggled.

16s is probably the most difficult as those teams will have the highest turnover rate of any division. BTW, my favorite game of all PGF last year was the 16 championship game. Both teams had berths.

[MavFan]

Why doesn't somebody go back over all the games of invited teams from each division & see how they fared in competition vs those teams that earned berths? Then compare the final win loss records & final standings. Comparative analysis for all you bean counting numbers crunching types

I look at 14s. SoCal As 14. Gino lost all but one player from the previous year. He put a new team together and got an invite. His girls did their thing and justified the invite.

He is now Team Mizuno and the berth he earned reverts back to PGF. If they gave him another invite, I wouldn't be surprised and would offer no objection. The upside is another team likely got in that wouldnt have otherwise.

The question is did a team that deserved to be there not get in?

How does another team get in that wouldn't have otherwise if Mizuno is invited? There are still X number of teams playing in the national. X number of berths and X number of invites. You are assuming that all invited teams would qualify if they were not invited. If you increase the invites, you lessen the chance of a team getting a berth not increase it because you reduce the number of berths won through qualification. If you have 56 teams sign up for a qualifier with 8 berths, 1 of 7 teams will get a berth. Now when you invite 4 teams from that pool of 56 and reduce the number of berths by 4, to 4, and the teams from 56 to 52, you have decreased the chances of getting a berth from 1 in 7 teams to 1 in 13 teams. Maybe the 4 invites get in if they have to qualify, maybe they don't, but you are definitely not getting a team in that may otherwise not have made it, again unless you assume all invited teams would earn a berth through qualification.

I see your point. I look at it from the perspective of teams that got invites that would have likely knocked others out of the qualifiers. Agree they might have knocked others out, it might be one of the invited teams that would be knocked out. But you still have to fill the X number of berths. If you don't invite teams, then you have to increase either the number of qualifiers, or the number of teams that qualify in a current qualifier. Either way you slice it you have to get X qualified teams. Additionally, and this applies to your next paragraph. If you reduce the invited teams to just the top 12 (8+ ties) from the previous year, you run the risk of teams, that were previously invited, playing early and knocking each other to the loser's bracket, and subsequently out of the event, because of the blind draw at a qualifier. I think that is more of a concern, but it sounds better to say you want to give others the opportunity to qualify. Fact is, if you made everyone qualify, you would probably better the odds of the previously uninvited teams earning a berth, because you lose control of who plays who, or more importantly, who doesn't play who. at a qualifer.

Some of those invites went to So Cal based teams because there were fewer out of state teams qualifying. If you increased the amount of SoCal based berths on the basis of team population, maybe you are right and the same teams get in.

I dont think team record at PGF means squat. Some teams played in multiple qualifiers to get in and did well. Others got in first shot out and did poorly at PGF. In 14s I can point to Buster's team with invite who played great at Premier. The flip side was SD Aztecs playing tough in qualifiers, coming up short, getting an invite and doing well. One FC team won an early qualifier but didnt perform all that well at PGF, while one had an invite and did very well. CA were like AP, had the berth from before, but not the same ace UCLA bound pitcher and struggled.

16s is probably the most difficult as those teams will have the highest turnover rate of any division. BTW, my favorite game of all PGF last year was the 16 championship game. Both teams had berths.

[coachEd]

This team says they are already qualified... hmmm....

viewtopic.php?f=147&t=48578

[NumeroUno]

Not sure how they would know that but u never know....JMO u there:)

[UmpSteve]

Not sure how they would know that but u never know....JMO u there:)

The info from last year's finish is taken down, so I certainly don't know, but IF they finished 1st thru tied for 9th in that age division last year the head coach does have a qualifying berth. That part would be for sure.

[Boogieman]

Corona Angels 98 would be a 14u team and according to Premier site you must place 1-6 to get a berth. Corona Angels 98 finished 33.