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How Valid are DIII Polls?

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by jonriv » Tue May 21, 2013 2:15 am

Taking a look at the final regular season NFCA poll:

Rank Team Record Points Previous
1 Salisbury (8) 35-2 200 1
2 Trine 36-3 192 2
3 Montclair State 41-3 184 3
4 Emory 39-3 174 4
5 Texas-Tyler 41-4 170 5
6 Linfield 36-6 159 6
7 Tufts 38-3 151 7
8 St. Thomas (Minnesota) 38-5 145 9
9 East Texas Baptist 34-10 123 10
10 Rowan 37-7 118 8
11 Wisconsin-Whitewater 31-5 112 14
12 Coe 32-6 105 11
13 Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 32-11 104 13
14 Christopher Newport 32-11 98 15
15 Virginia Wesleyan 38-6 94 16
16 Central (Iowa) 28-8 91 12
17 Redlands 34-10 61 18
18 Luther 28-9 52
19 Lynchburg 32-11 48 20
20 Susquehanna 37-7 42 21
21 Illinois Wesleyan 31-9 40 17
22 Carthage 30-10 34 19
23 Fontbonne 33-10 28 23
24 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 26-7 27 25
25 Augustana (Illinois) 29-12 24
Others receiving votes:

Other teams receiving votes this week included Capital (10), Cortland State (4), Lebanon Valley (4), Washington University St. Louis (3), St. John Fisher (2) and Babson (1).

Only six of the final 8 were even in the top 25- Tufts (the eventual winner was ranked 7th. Cortland State-the runner up was not even ramked and eceived only 4 votes to be ranked. It appears that many teams are ranked by reputation and not by anyone actually seeing them play. I am curious to see how different the FINAL poll will be
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by hit4power » Wed May 22, 2013 7:24 am

It's possible that there just aren't big differences between teams and so the ranking is just splitting hairs at the end of the day. Also, there's no way to predict which teams get hot or get cold at the end of the season. Polls (DI or DIII) will never be precise predictors of who wins a particular game or double elim tourney.
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by J_O_E » Wed May 22, 2013 10:20 am

How Valid are DIII Polls?

As valid as DIII softball...
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by freetacos » Wed May 22, 2013 11:49 am

Joe that ranks up there with your more ignorant comments.

Get a clue dude.

ft

I have learned that sometimes it's just best to stfu and move on. Yes I have placed both feet in mouth many times but I'm getting better. ;)
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by J_O_E » Wed May 22, 2013 12:43 pm

freetacos wrote: Yes I have placed both feet in mouth many times but I'm getting better. ;)


Congrats muchacho...
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by PDad » Wed May 22, 2013 1:32 pm

jonriv wrote:Only six of the final 8 were even in the top 25- Tufts (the eventual winner was ranked 7th. Cortland State-the runner up was not even ramked and eceived only 4 votes to be ranked. It appears that many teams are ranked by reputation and not by anyone actually seeing them play.

D3's don't play as extensive of a non-conference schedule as D1 or even D2, so it's really hard to compare teams that haven't played each other or common opponents. D3 polls are marginally better than national HS polls.
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by ontheblack » Wed May 22, 2013 2:47 pm

PDad wrote:
jonriv wrote:Only six of the final 8 were even in the top 25- Tufts (the eventual winner was ranked 7th. Cortland State-the runner up was not even ramked and eceived only 4 votes to be ranked. It appears that many teams are ranked by reputation and not by anyone actually seeing them play.

D3's don't play as extensive of a non-conference schedule as D1 or even D2, so it's really hard to compare teams that haven't played each other or common opponents. D3 polls are marginally better than national HS polls.


But not as good as HB polls.
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by jonriv » Wed May 22, 2013 4:19 pm

PDad wrote:
jonriv wrote:Only six of the final 8 were even in the top 25- Tufts (the eventual winner was ranked 7th. Cortland State-the runner up was not even ramked and eceived only 4 votes to be ranked. It appears that many teams are ranked by reputation and not by anyone actually seeing them play.

D3's don't play as extensive of a non-conference schedule as D1 or even D2, so it's really hard to compare teams that haven't played each other or common opponents. D3 polls are marginally better than national HS polls.


Thought you might have something with this, but after checking I found that most of the DIIIs I lokked at 50% of their games were non-conference-similar to DI


I think your theory might be on the right track- DIII schools tend to play a very regional schedule-so teams outside a certain region are unfamiliar with those from outside their regions. The rankings are from coaches from 8 of the conferences-obviously there votes will be based on teams they know. There is much broader knowledge of DI programs from both history and TV coverage. A strong "new" strong team in one region can be virtually unknown elsewhere
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by PDad » Wed May 22, 2013 6:29 pm

jonriv wrote:
PDad wrote:
jonriv wrote:Only six of the final 8 were even in the top 25- Tufts (the eventual winner was ranked 7th. Cortland State-the runner up was not even ramked and eceived only 4 votes to be ranked. It appears that many teams are ranked by reputation and not by anyone actually seeing them play.

D3's don't play as extensive of a non-conference schedule as D1 or even D2, so it's really hard to compare teams that haven't played each other or common opponents. D3 polls are marginally better than national HS polls.

Thought you might have something with this, but after checking I found that most of the DIIIs I lokked at 50% of their games were non-conference-similar to DI

I think your theory might be on the right track- DIII schools tend to play a very regional schedule-so teams outside a certain region are unfamiliar with those from outside their regions. The rankings are from coaches from 8 of the conferences-obviously there votes will be based on teams they know. There is much broader knowledge of DI programs from both history and TV coverage. A strong "new" strong team in one region can be virtually unknown elsewhere

ex·ten·sive ( k-st n s v). adj. 1. Large in extent, range, or amount.

I was alluding to the geographical range of teams they face, not the number of games. D1s tend to travel more and further for the early season tourneys, so there is a bigger mix of teams at each one. There are a number of them held here and they draw schools from all over the country.
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by jonriv » Wed May 22, 2013 6:45 pm

Sorry for not fully understanding, but appears there is some agreement. I think another reason is that teams play more regional opponents(besides the economic reasons) is the fact that regional wins help them to be ranked regionally and help in the pursuit of the very small pool of at large bids at the diii levels. Many teams play regional opponents even when they play down in fla
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